Tuesday, 12 June 2012

And The Next President Of Egypt Is...?

I've been asked, much like everyone is asking everyone, who I thought would win the runoff elections. Well, on the 8th of April of this year I made my first guess on who I thought was most likely to win Egypt's Presidential Elections, after the full lineup of candidates was becoming clear. My rough calculation, however, was not met at the time with wide endorsement given the presence of more than 1500 announced potential pre-candidates at the time, including all the heavyweights such Omar Soleiman, Khairat Al-Shater, Hazem Abu Ismail, Abdel-Men'eim Abul-Fotouh and Amr Moussa. 

I am aware of course of all the arguments suggesting that Shafiq "won't be allowed to lose" or that there is rising dissatisfaction with conservative political forces, but I still feel it is more likely Morsi would win. The results of the expat vote are also pushing in that direction. Still, at the time I also felt it was almost impossible for Shafiq to stage a comeback like he did, and I also felt it difficult Sabahi would end up fourth or fifth, let alone third. So nothing is ever certain anymore.

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