Showing posts with label Egypt Presidential Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egypt Presidential Elections. Show all posts

Tuesday, 12 June 2012

And The Next President Of Egypt Is...?

I've been asked, much like everyone is asking everyone, who I thought would win the runoff elections. Well, on the 8th of April of this year I made my first guess on who I thought was most likely to win Egypt's Presidential Elections, after the full lineup of candidates was becoming clear. My rough calculation, however, was not met at the time with wide endorsement given the presence of more than 1500 announced potential pre-candidates at the time, including all the heavyweights such Omar Soleiman, Khairat Al-Shater, Hazem Abu Ismail, Abdel-Men'eim Abul-Fotouh and Amr Moussa. 


I am aware of course of all the arguments suggesting that Shafiq "won't be allowed to lose" or that there is rising dissatisfaction with conservative political forces, but I still feel it is more likely Morsi would win. The results of the expat vote are also pushing in that direction. Still, at the time I also felt it was almost impossible for Shafiq to stage a comeback like he did, and I also felt it difficult Sabahi would end up fourth or fifth, let alone third. So nothing is ever certain anymore.

Thursday, 19 April 2012

Quick Guide: Who Are Egypt's Final 13 Presidential Candidates

Out of a total of 23 official Egyptian Presidential candidates, ten were surprisingly disqualified, including three of the strongest candidates and leading contenders (I explain in another post who they are and why they were disqualified). Below is a very quick list of who the 13 remaining candidates are. If you want more info, check the link at the bottom:

Left to right: Abul-Fotouh, El-Awwa and Sabbahy.

1- Abul-Ezz El-Hariry: leftist nominee, socialist and labour activist with a career of nearly 45 years.  He was arrested several times under Sadat in particular, and he was Egypt's youngest MP in 1976. Being one of its co-founders right after the January Revolution, he is running on behalf of "The Popular Socialist Alliance" party.

2- Mohammed Fawzy Eissa: little known law graduate and a former police officer. He is running on behalf of the "Democratic Generation Party."

3- Ahmed Hossam Khairallah: former deputy intelligence director, a surprise candidate. He came from a military background and family with strong Security-oriented credential. He joined the intelligence service until 2005 when he retired after 20 years of service, reaching the post  of Information Director. He is running on behalf of the "Democratic Peace Party."

4- Amr Moussa: former Foreign Minister between 1991 and 2001 and Arab-League Secretary-General until 2011. He is considered the front runner, though his support base appears fragile for some. He is considered by many as the "safe" candidate due to his identity as a recognised statesman, but his critics argue he was too close to the Mubarak regime, was only pushed aside when his popularity eclipsed Mubarak's, and that he appears at times to be more of rhetorician than a doer. He is running independently after obtaining more than 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures.

5- Abdel-Mon'eim Abul-Fotouh: medical doctor, former member of the Muslim Brother Guidance Bureau from 1987 until 2009, was expelled from the MB for deciding to run for President, when the MB was still committed to not fielding a Presidential candidate. He has a long history of political struggle and activism , became famous after confronting Sadat on a televised debate about the former president's crackdown on popular politics and Islamists. He is considered to be a progressive and liberal-leaning Islamist, and is a favourite of many pro-revolution voters. He is running independently after obtaining more than 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures.

6- Hisham Al-Bastawisi: former judge and deputy head of the Court of Cassation, and key figure in the Judiciary Independence Movement during the days of Mubarak. After continuous harassment and intimidatory investigations by the former regime due to his general reformist stance, as well as his and others judges' refusal to supervise the 2005 Presidential elections (which he and the others proclaimed as rigged and fraudulent) he eventually suffered from a heart attack in 2006. Even after the charges were dropped he remained under continuous intimidation and surveillance, eventually moving to Kuwait in 2008 to work there. He returned in the middle of the 18-days January revolution to participate in the protests publicly. He had also previously withdrawn from the electoral race before making a surprise comeback. He is running on behalf of the "National Progressive Unionist Rally Party." (Famously known as El-Tagammu')

7- Mahmoud Hossam El-Din Galal: born to a military family, he was a career police officer. He also worked in the UN Middle-Eastern Human Rights department from 1992-1994. He is running independently after obtaining more than 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures.

8- Mohammed Selim El-Awwa: a commercial lawyer and litigator, dubbed a "moderate islamist and political thinker", he obtained a doctorate from the School Of African And Oriental Studies (SOAS) in in 1972 on the comparative study of punishments in the Islamic and Western legal systems. His father was a disciple of the MB founder Hassan Al-Banna, and El-Awwa was instrumental in defending many MB members against the Mubarak regime.  He often differed with the MB due to primarily the doctrine of strict obedience to leadership, which he refused. He is running independently after obtaining more than 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures.

9- Ahmed Shafiq: former Egypt Civil Aviation Minister, considered as Mubarak's confidante and preferred successor, as well as being Mubarak's last Prime Minister. His candidacy is controversial given his close ties to the former regime. He has a Master's Degree in Military Sciences and a Doctorate in Military Strategy. he is running independently after obtaining more than 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures.

10- Hamdeen Sabbahy: respected Nasserist and populist candidate with a long history of student and political activism and struggle, he is also the founder of the Karama (Dignity) Party (under establishment) and head of the Karama Newspaper.  He came to light in 1977 when he confronted Sadat  about inflation in a famous televised debate with students, and was jailed many times during his career, with the last being in 2003 while he was an MP (and reportedly without the lifting of his immunity) under the charge of the illegal "organising of demonstrations" against the US war in Iraq. He is running independently after obtaining more than 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures.

11- Abdallah Al-Ash'aal: former diplomat who served in places such as Riyadh, Bahrain, Greece and Nigeria, eventually rising to head of the Strategic Planning Unit. He is also said to have authored nearly 70 books on various subjects. He formerly withdrew from the race in support of Khairat El-Shater, only to suddenly make a comeback. He is running on behalf of the Asala Salafist Party.

12- Khaled Ali: left-leaning human rights lawyer, dubbed the "Revolution's candidate", as well the youngest candidate of the list at 40 years of age. He is the founder of the Egyptian Centre For Economic And Social Rights, and is running after obtaining more than 30 endorsements from sitting MPs from either/both houses of Parliament.

13- Mohammed Morsy: member of the MB, head of the FJP (The Freedom And Justice Party, the MB's party), and dubbed by the media as Khairat Al-Shater's "backup candidate." This engineering professor and former MP is running on behalf of the FJP.

For more, please refer to this longer and detailed great guide by Ahram Online on all 23 candidates.

Note: I should update this post soon to add a picture for each candidate, as well as links to their official campaign pages.

You might also want to check out these posts:


A Look Into The Main Posters Of Egypt's Presidential Candidates

Egypt's Presidential Elections still somehow under way, despite all the controversies and roadblocks, now with 13 candidates going forward out of the original 23.  For a break from more serious writing, here is a look at some of the most noteworthy candidate posters out there from the original 23. These are all the official posters, mainly being used on the streets, as well as some used predominantly online.

- Hazem Abu Ismail: independent Salafist candidate, and the most famous poster of all. There have been so many of such posters printed and distributed all over Egypt in such a way that online satire was equally prolific. People made hundreds of jokes about it, as well as making photoshopped images of such posters finding themselves on the moon, all over the Great Wall of China, and on microscopically-imaged microorganisms. It is rumoured that Abu Ismail and supporters printed posters exceeding 40 million EGP in cost (hint: an activist associated with another campaig was raising 16,000 EGP so that he could print 100,000 posters.) Next to it is Abu Ismail's old 2005 Parliamentary elections poster, using much of the same structure. Slogan: "We will live dignified."




 - Mohammed Morsy: described by some as the Muslim Brotherhood's "backup candidate" for having gone into the race in case Khairat El-Shater is not cleared for running for the Presidency due to his legal issues, Morsy still has no official posters. These are the official online posters used on MB websites, including the current welcome screen for Ikhwan Online. Some posters identify him with Al-Shater as basically two sides of the same coin: the MB's "Renaissance Project." That is basically done to increase the appeal of his sudden candidacy. Slogan: "The Renaissance... Will of the people."








 - Khairat Al-Shater: the MB's former deputy guide, said to be its main financier and strongest man, and also its original presidential candidate before disqualification. Posters tried to present a more vibrant image of the man who exhausted from previous imprisonment, health condition and  asuperhuman workload. They also present him as the "architect of the renaissance project." One poster that came out, most likely unofficial, was an online poster (yellow, below) claiming he was "The Joseph Of Our Times, "getting out of prison to rule Egypt." The slogan was also: "The Renaissance... Will of the people."






- Khaled Ali: often described as the "Revolution's candidate", this left-leaning human rights lawyer chose a simpler image, more youth-and-common-man-oriented, in his posters. He is the youngest candidate of all, and is said to be running officially to represent the purer and non-compromising goal of the revolution. Slogan: "We will fulfill our dream."





- Mohammed Selim El-Awwa: an independent candidate, a "moderate islamist and political thinker", his campaign is yet to take on full form. Posters are currently still quite varying, many unofficial. But his official online posters are the ones below. His message and slogan: "If I make mistake, then help me rectify. If I lost my path, then my removal from office is a duty."




- Abul-Ezz El-Hariry: leftist candidate running on behalf of the Popular Socialist Alliance Party. His current Slogan: "The Revolution Continues." Slogan comes from one of the slogans and catch phrases used by revolutionaries after the January revolution, as well as the name of the electoral alliance that brought together younger candidates representing the revolution.




- Amr Moussa: former Foreign Minister and former Arab League Sec-Gen, he is the presumed front runner. Moussa is going for a look that would highlight that he is the "safe, respectable and strong" candidate. First up, you can find the main poster, focusing on his stature. Then, the campaign took another staple picture (found in the second poster) and put it on many posters with different backgrounds and different tag-lines. For example, the one below is him in front of a mosque and a church, with the tag line: "National Unity." The campaign slogan: "We rise up to the challenge."




- Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh: former leading MB figure, current independent presidential candidate. Abul-Fotouh is running on the idea of being the "Consensual Candidate," the one that all Egyptian can unite behind. He has a background in Islamism, yet is also considered progressive. For example, poster three presents him as the "Voice Of Moderation." Second poster describes his alleged characteristics, such as "strong and honest", "religious and open-minded", "a visionary." It is suggested that the choice of orange for his campaign colour is a reference to his relative youth and vitality compared to most candidates. The Slogan: "President Of Egypt." I expected another additional slogan soon.







- Ahmed Shafiq: former close confidante of Mubarak, rumoured to be his preferred choice for successor, he was also the civil aviation minister and the last Prime Minister of the Mubarak regime. His candidacy remains a source of controversy given such close ties with the regime overthrown by the revolution. Shafiq is said to have "the most elegant" posters by a few commentators, yet still criticised for being a bit classist or alienating vis-a-vis less affluent and rural voter. First poster is official, the second two appear to be semi-official somehow. Slogan: Egypt for everyone, and by everyone.






- Ayman Nour: liberal politician, was running (before disqualification) on behalf of the "Tomorrow Of The Revolution Party", and first candidate to oppose Mubarak significantly in a multi-candidate elections in 2005 (imprisoned shortly after), he was a late comer to these 2012 elections. I could not find a proper resolution image of his poster, but I found pictures of them on the streets, and the original picture without the text. He it noted for having said with genuine frustration: "I cannot find a place to put my posters!".. due to Abu Ismail's posters being everywhere. Slogan: "We were a ray a of light... in a time of darkness" (a reference to light since "Nour" means "light") - and "For a free Egypt"


 

- Hamdeen Sabbahy: independent candidate, Nasserist, Sabbahy has a long history of political activism. He is running on a populist platform, attempting to appeal mainly to less affluent and middle-class voters. Some detractors of the poster have claimed it lacked a more "presidential" look to it, especially for such a respectable candidate. Slogan: "One of us, president of Egypt."



- Omar Soleiman: this former VP and Intelligence chief made a very late entry into the race, only to be disqualified as fast as he had entered. I have searched for an official poster, but couldn't find any. This, however, was the most common poster used and posted by supporters, online and offline. Below it was a better effort by his supporter's Facebook page. Slogan: "The true alternative. Omar Soleiman, President of the Republic." 




- Ashraf Barouma: candidate for the Masr Al-Kinana Party, posters show different sides of the  versatile candidate. Now, Barouma was not really a serious contender (he was disqualified as well), but he was talked about much due to a surname that had some comedic undertones in Arabic as well as (says the poster in casual attire) the fact that he had a mysterious plan to "end poverty in Egypt in...228 days." I don't think Hernando De Soto himself had such a day-by-day plan for poverty eradication. Slogan: "Ashraf Barouma, for leader of Egypt." and "Leadership has many meanings and principles... We have lived them."





- Mohammed Hosny Mubarak: his 2005 campaign posters, for ol' times' sake. Yes I know that, well, technically he's not running...yet.




Sunday, 15 April 2012

Why Would Many Want To Vote For Omar Soleiman

In this Ahram Online Op-Ed, I look into the reasons why some have genuine excitement for the controversial Presidential candidacy of Omar Soleiman.



Sunday, 25 March 2012

List of Egyptian Official Presidential Candidates - قائمة بمرشحي الرئاسة المصرية الرسميين

This is an ongoing list of official Egyptian Presidential Candidates. These are the candidates who have officially acquired either the 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures, support of 30 MP, or the official support of a political party that has at least one MP in Parliament, and have submitted their candidacy papers to the Presidential Elections Committee.


It should be noted that more than 1320 people gave obtained the presidential nomination documents, until now.



هذه قائمة مستمرة بأسامي المرشحين الرسميين للرئاسة المصرية. هؤلاء هم من حصلوا على ٣٠ الف توكيل، دعم ٣٠ عضو بالبرلمان، أو الدعم الرسمي من إحدى الأحزاب الممثلة ولو بعضو واحد في البرلمان، وقدموا أوراقهم رسميا للجنة الإنتخابات الرئاسية.

وجدير بالذكر أن أكثر من ١٣٢٠ شخص كانوا قد سحبوا أوراق الترشح للرئاسة، حتى الآن.



1- Abul-Ezz El-Hariri: supported by the Socialist Popular Alliance Party.
2- Hossam Khairallah: supported by the Democratic Peace Party.
3- Ahmed Mohammed Awad Aly: supported by the Egypt National Party.
4- Mohammed Abdel-Fattah Mohammed Fawzy: supported by the Generation Democratic Party.
5- Amr Moussa: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
6- Abdel Men'em Abul-Fotouh: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
7- Mohammed Hazem Salah Abu-Ismail: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
8- Hisham Al-Bastawisi: received endorsement of the Rally (Tagammu') Party
9- Mahmoud Hossam El-Din Mahmoud: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
10- Ibrahim Ahmed Al-Gharib: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
11- Mohammed Selim Al-Awwa: received 30 endorsements from sitting MPs or more.
12- Mohammed Khairat Al-Shater: received 30 endorsements from sitting MPs or more.
13- Ahmed Shafiq: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
14- Hamdeen Sabbahy: received 30,000 citizen endorsement signatures or more.
15- Ayman Nour: received endorsement of the Tomorrow Of The Revolution (Ghadd'ul Thawra) Party.


١- أبو العز الحريري: حصل على دعم حزب التحالف الشعبي الإشتراكي.
٢- حسام خير الله: حصل على دعم حزب السلام الديمقراطي.
٣- أحمد محمد عوض على: حصل على دعم حزب مصر القومي.
٤- محمد عبد الفتاح محمد فوزي: حصل على دعم حزب الجيل الديمقراطي.
٥- عمرو موسى: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
٦- عبد المنعم أبو الفتوح: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
٧- محمد حازم صلاح أبو إسماعيل: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
٨- هشام البسطويسي: حصل على دعم حزب التجمع.
٩- محمود حسام الدين محمود: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
١٠- إبراهيم أحمد الغريب: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
١١- محمد سليم العوا: حصل على دعم ٣٠ عضو من مجلسي الشعب والشورى أو أكثر.
١٢- محمد خيرت الشاطر: حصل على دعم ٣٠ عضو من مجلسي الشعب والشورى أو أكثر.
١٣- أحمد شفيق: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
١٤- حمدين صباحي: حصل على ٣٠ الف توكيلا أو أكثر.
١٥- أيمن نور: حصل على دعم حزب غد الثورة.